Module 12: Finding Opportunities

Module 9 introduced finding solicitations on SAM.gov. This lesson goes deeper into building a systematic opportunity pipeline that surfaces the right contracts consistently.

Advanced search techniques:

Keyword search combined with NAICS: do not rely on NAICS code alone. Add keywords specific to your capability. For a cybersecurity firm: NAICS 541512 + keywords "cybersecurity" OR "CMMC" OR "NIST 800-171." This narrows results to IT contracts with a cybersecurity component.

Organization filters: target specific agencies. If you want DoD work, filter by Department of Defense. Within DoD, you can filter by specific branches or agencies (Army, Navy, Air Force, DISA, DLA). Civilian agencies like DHS, DOJ, and HHS each have IT contracting offices with different procurement styles.

Dollar range filters: filter by estimated contract value. For a first-time contractor, target $50K-$350K (simplified acquisition range). These contracts have less competition, shorter evaluation periods, and fewer proposal requirements.

Multiple saved searches: create separate saved searches for different strategies. Example: Search 1: NAICS 541512, Total Small Business Set-Aside, $50K-$350K, DoD Search 2: NAICS 541512, SDVOSB Set-Aside, any value (if you are SDVOSB) Search 3: NAICS 541519, Sources Sought, any value (market research notices)

Set each search to email you daily. Review the results each morning. This takes 10-15 minutes per day and keeps your pipeline full.

Beyond SAM.gov:

GovWin (Deltek): paid service ($3,000-10,000/year) that tracks pre-solicitation intelligence, incumbent contract data, and agency forecast spending. Worth the investment once you are actively bidding, not before.

Agency forecast databases: many agencies publish their annual procurement forecasts. Check the agency's Office of Small and Disadvantaged Business Utilization (OSDBU) website for forecast listings.

SubNet (SBA): subcontracting opportunity network. Large prime contractors post subcontracting opportunities for small businesses. This is an alternative to bidding as a prime.

USASpending.gov: search historical awards by agency, NAICS code, and contractor. This shows who is winning contracts in your space, at what dollar values, and through which contracting offices. Use this for competitive intelligence.

Pipeline management:

Track every opportunity you identify in a simple spreadsheet: Solicitation number, title, agency, NAICS code, estimated value, due date, set-aside type, decision (bid / no-bid / watch), and status.

Review your pipeline weekly. Remove closed opportunities. Add new ones from your saved searches. Aim for 10-15 active opportunities at any time, knowing you will only bid on 2-3 of them.

Different solicitation types have different response formats, evaluation methods, and competitive dynamics. Knowing the type tells you how much effort to invest and what format your response should take.

RFP (Request for Proposal): Used for: complex acquisitions where the government wants to evaluate technical approach, past performance, and price. Response format: formal written proposal, often 50-200 pages across multiple volumes (technical, management, past performance, cost/price). Evaluation method: best value tradeoff or lowest price technically acceptable (Section M tells you which). Effort to respond: 40-200 hours. This is the most resource-intensive solicitation type. When to bid: when the contract value justifies the proposal investment and you have a credible win strategy.

RFQ (Request for Quotation): Used for: simpler acquisitions, often for commercial products/services or work under the simplified acquisition threshold. Response format: a quote, which is simpler than a proposal. Usually includes pricing, delivery terms, and basic capability statement. Evaluation method: typically lowest price or best value for simple requirements. Effort to respond: 5-20 hours. Much simpler than an RFP. When to bid: good for new contractors building past performance. Lower barrier to entry.

RFI (Request for Information) / Sources Sought: Used for: market research. The government wants to know if companies like yours exist. Response format: a capability statement (1-5 pages) describing your company, relevant experience, and interest. Evaluation method: no evaluation, no award. This is information gathering. Effort to respond: 2-5 hours. Always respond if the work matches your capability. It gets you on the contracting officer's radar. When to respond: always, if the work is in your NAICS code.

BAA (Broad Agency Announcement): Used for: research and development. Agencies publish topic areas and invite white papers or proposals from contractors with innovative solutions. Response format: typically a two-phase process. Phase 1: short white paper (5-10 pages). Phase 2: full proposal if the white paper is selected. Evaluation method: scientific/technical merit and relevance to the agency's research goals. When to respond: if you have genuine R&D capability in the topic area. BAAs are not for routine IT services.

SBIR/STTR: Used for: small business innovation research (covered in detail in Module 13). Response format: structured proposal following the soliciting agency's format. Evaluation method: technical merit, innovation, commercial potential. When to respond: if you have a novel technology or approach that addresses a government research need.

Task Order Competitions (under IDIQ contracts): Used for: ordering work under an existing indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract. Response format: varies, usually a shortened proposal or quote since the base contract terms are already established. Important: you must already hold the IDIQ contract to compete for task orders. Getting on an IDIQ vehicle is itself a competitive process.

Every opportunity you find requires a decision: invest 40-200 hours writing a proposal, or move on. A disciplined go/no-go framework prevents you from wasting time on opportunities you cannot win.

The five-question filter (from Module 9, expanded here):

Question 1: Can we meet every mandatory requirement? Check Section L for mandatory qualifications, certifications, and clearance requirements. If a solicitation requires a Top Secret facility clearance and you do not have one, the answer is no. No amount of proposal quality overcomes a missing mandatory requirement.

Question 2: Do we have relevant past performance? Evaluators look for past performance that is similar in scope, complexity, and dollar value. "Similar" does not mean identical. A cybersecurity assessment for a commercial client can demonstrate relevant experience for a DoD cybersecurity contract. New contractors with zero past performance: focus on opportunities that give neutral (not negative) past performance ratings to new entrants, or subcontract to build a track record.

Question 3: Is the contract value worth the bid cost? Minimum ratio: 10:1 (contract value to bid cost). For a $50K contract, spend no more than $5K in bid effort (50 hours at $100/hour). For a $500K contract, up to $50K in bid effort is justifiable if you have a strong win probability.

Question 4: Do we have a win theme? In one sentence, why should the government choose you over competitors? Examples: "We are the only SDVOSB bidder with CMMC Level 2 certification." "We have performed identical work for three civilian agencies." "Our approach reduces the transition period by 60% compared to the incumbent." If you cannot articulate a win theme, you are bidding on hope.

Question 5: What is our probability of win (Pwin)? Estimate honestly: 70%+: you wrote the requirements, you are the incumbent, or the solicitation is set aside for your specific program. 40-70%: you have relevant experience, a strong win theme, and no disqualifying gaps. 20-40%: competitive field, some gaps in past performance or technical approach, but a credible proposal. Below 20%: incumbent advantage, gaps in mandatory requirements, or weak win theme. Do not bid.

Scoring: 5 "yes" answers and Pwin above 40%: bid. 4 "yes" answers and Pwin above 30%: bid with caution (understand the risk). 3 or fewer "yes" answers or Pwin below 20%: no-bid. Move on.

Track your go/no-go decisions and outcomes. After 10 bid decisions, review: which bids did you win? What was your actual win rate? Were your Pwin estimates accurate? This data improves your decision-making over time.

A pipeline tracker is a spreadsheet or database that tracks every opportunity from discovery through award. It is your single source of truth for what you are pursuing, where each opportunity stands, and what you need to do next.

Minimum fields for your pipeline tracker:

Identification: Solicitation number (e.g., W15QKN-26-R-0042) Title / description (short) Agency and contracting office Posted date Response due date

Classification: NAICS code Set-aside type (full small business, WOSB, SDVOSB, unrestricted) Contract type (FFP, T&M, CPFF) Estimated value Period of performance

Decision: Go/no-go decision (bid, no-bid, watching) Decision date Win theme (one sentence) Pwin estimate (percentage)

Status: Current stage: watching, preparing, submitted, under evaluation, awarded, lost Proposal lead (if you have team members) Key dates: questions due, proposal due, expected award

Outcome (after award): Won / lost / no award Award amount (if won) Debrief notes (if lost) Lessons learned

How to use the tracker:

Daily: check SAM.gov saved search results. Add new opportunities to the tracker. Update status on active pursuits.

Weekly: review the full pipeline. How many opportunities are in each stage? Are any due dates approaching? Do you need to make go/no-go decisions? Are you pursuing too many (overcommitted) or too few (empty pipeline)?

Monthly: review win/loss data. Calculate your bid-to-win ratio. If you are bidding on 10 contracts and winning 0, your targeting is wrong (go back to the go/no-go framework). A healthy win rate for small businesses is 20-30% on competitive bids and 50%+ on set-aside bids.

Pipeline health metrics:

Active opportunities (watching + preparing): target 10-15 Active bids (submitted, under evaluation): target 2-4 Win rate: track over rolling 12 months Average contract value won: track to ensure you are growing Average bid cost: track to ensure your investment per bid is reasonable

The pipeline tracker transforms government contracting from "react to whatever shows up on SAM.gov" to "systematically pursue the right opportunities at the right time." The difference between contractors who grow and contractors who plateau is usually pipeline discipline, not proposal quality.